NEW YORK — Republicans have spent an estimated $183 million on television ads focused on transgender-related attacks against Democrats in the final phase of this year’s midterm elections, betting that struggling GOP candidates can leverage the divisive cultural issue to overcome voters’ concerns about President Donald Trump’s leadership and the state of the economy.
The massive investment through Oct. 25 produced about 217,000 TV spots nationwide and exceeds the amount Republicans spent on similar ads in 2024, a presidential election year, at the same point before Election Day, according to tallies provided to The Associated Press by data firm AdImpact.
The spending campaign matched messaging from other Republicans on the campaign trail, led by Trump, who has played down surging gasoline prices and other rising costs, but highlighted what he described as an urgent threat to America’s children from Democratic policies.
The Republican emphasis on transgender issues offers a consequential test of whether a theme that had worked in past elections — and especially in deep red states — can still be potent when voters consistently say high prices are their chief concern.
Barely five minutes into his speech during Monday night’s rally in Corinth, Mississippi, Trump said that Democrats “promote the transgender mutilization of your children.” During his Sunday rally in Florida, Trump said “men in women’s sports” four times and gender “mutilization” — meaning mutilation — another four times.
Having shifted away from abortion, few cultural issues reflect the Republican Party’s evolution on social issues in the age of Trump more than transgender rights. Though a tiny number of Americans are directly affected by legislation designed to protect transgender people from discrimination, Republicans have used the issue as a powerful emotional motivator, especially in Republican-leaning states where they need to win to maintain control of Congress.
Texas’ high-stakes Senate contest alone has consumed the largest share of Republican-backed transgender-related spending, drawing an estimated $58 million for more than 50,000 airings, according to AdImpact. But the GOP is also investing heavily in related attacks against Democrats in Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa and Mississippi, according to an AP analysis of the data.
The Republican Party’s focus stands in stark contrast to what voters say they care most about this midterm season.
“Republicans clearly believe these issues expose a cultural disconnect between Democratic candidates and a significant portion of the electorate,” said Republican pollster Chris Wilson. “It’s not necessarily that transgender policy is a top voting priority, it’s that voters can use a candidate’s position on it as a proxy for their broader values and judgment.”
Only about 1 in 10 registered voters say transgender issues are “one of the most important issues” in the election, according to an AP-NORC poll from October.
That falls well below the roughly 8 in 10 who mentioned the economy or the cost of living, and also falls short of other issues that have surfaced during the campaign, including healthcare and the war with Iran.
Republicans were more likely than independents and Democrats to say transgender issues are highly important to this election, but it still fell below other issues.
The issue resonates with voters like Jerry Casner, a 74-year-old registered Republican and three-time Trump voter, who lives in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania. He retired from a nearby Army depot and works 12 hours a week at a grocery store in New Cumberland.
“Well, I don’t like the way the Democrats operate,” Casner said, when asked what national issues are important to him. He explained: “If you can’t even determine the difference between a man and a woman, but yet you’re going to make life and death decisions for me, oh, I don’t think so. That’s disgusting.”
Casner said he plans on voting Republican up and down the ballot.
Republicans across federal, state and local races have aired transgender-themed ads during the general election around 217,000 times at a cost estimated at $183 million through Oct. 25, AdImpact found. That’s up from $151 million in spending in the 2024 general election as of the same number of days prior to that year’s election.
Democrats have spent roughly $11 million on transgender-related ads, largely to defend themselves from the attacks.
This year’s spending was concentrated in a small number of races, according to AdImpact.
Texas PAC, the Republican super PAC largely funded by Elon Musk and supporting Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, has at least three separate TV ads hammering Democrat James Talarico on trans issues.
One of them echoes a Trump ad from the 2024 campaign with the narrator saying that Vice President Kamala Harris is for “they, them. President Trump is for you.” The Texas ad accuses Talarico of supporting taxpayer funding of minors’ sex-reassignment surgery, charging that he’s “for they them, not you.”
Another Texas PAC ad claims Talarico supports taxpayer funding of gender reassignment surgery for minors, while a third accuses him of backing child abuse charges against parents who do not support transitioning their children.
“If you care about your children, do not vote for James Talarico,” the narrator says in the spot that has aired nearly 17,000 times at a cost exceeding $23 million.
In Ohio, Republican groups led by the Senate Leadership Fund PAC are running multiple trans-themed ads against Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown.
In two of that fund’s ads, someone who underwent surgery as a minor and later de-transitioned is featured describing the regret and accusing Brown of supporting such surgeries for minors. Another accuses Brown of supporting “men competing in women’s sports.”
Brown’s campaign said the ads were a “total lie” and a distraction from economic issues. The independent organization PolitiFact rated the fund’s ad false.
Talarico has publicly stated that he opposes gender-reassignment surgery for minors. And the attack against Brown twists a 2023 interview where Brown stated that a child’s medical decisions belong between families and doctors, not politicians.
Still, the Texas ads have aired an estimated 50,000 times overall at a cost of $58 million, representing roughly 2 in 10 ads run in the Senate race. The Ohio attacks against Brown have cost nearly $26 million.
In deeper-red states like South Carolina, which has emerged as an unlikely Senate battleground, Republicans have spent more than $5 million on transgender-themed ads. And in the Kansas Senate race, Republican transgender ads have aired 7,000 times at a cost of nearly $7 million.
“The interesting question isn’t why Republicans are running these ads, it’s whether they’re still persuading anyone or simply reinforcing attitudes voters already hold,” said Wilson, the Republican pollster. “Those are two very different things, and $100 million in spending doesn’t tell us which is happening.”
He added, “We’ll find that out on Election Day.”
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Peoples reported from New York. AP writers Linley Sanders in Washington and Marc Levy in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, contributed.