LOGAN – If recent polling is accurate, Democratic congressional candidate Peter Crosby’s race against incumbent U.S. Rep. Blake Moore in the newly redrawn 2nd District of Utah is now a dead heat.
Crosby announced Sept. 14 that voter sentiment in the traditionally Republican safe haven of northern Utah is statistically tied according to internal polling conducted by his grass roots campaign organization during early September.
“The old assumptions about this district aren’t going to decide this election,” according to Brian King, the chair of then Utah Democratic Party. “The voters will.
“For voters across northern Utah, the priorities are pretty straightforward. They want to know how their representatives are going to make life more affordable and whether they can trust them to put constituents ahead of special interests.”
At a press conference at Caffe Ibis, the challenger explained that recent polling surveyed a random sample of registered voters in Box Elder, Cache, Davis, Rich and Weber counties.
The results of that sampling placed Crosby within a 1.7 percent margin of Moore in a head-to-head match-up if the upcoming midterm election were to be held immediately, with over 25 percent of survey respondents still unsure of who they will vote for.
Survey responses from 762 random registered voters conducted from Sept. 8 to 10 found that 32.41 percent favored Moore, compared to 30.71 favoring Crosby. Another 25 percent were unsure about their votes in the upcoming election, while 8.5 percent favored neither candidate and 3.2 percent favored other candidates.
The Crosby campaign argues that their recent polling indicates that Moore is deeply unpopular in the new court-ordered 2nd Congressional District, making the northern Utah race competitive for the first time in years.
The early September surveys were conducted using commercial SMS polling software. To ensure accuracy, registered Republican voters were over-sampled by approximately 9 points, making up about 61 percent of the polling sample. The Crosby campaign acknowledges that their poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
The challenger’s campaign isn’t alone in going out on a limb with its polling results, however. A recent survey by the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah commissioned by the Deseret News revealed a growing anti-incumbent mood among Utah voters. In addition to distrust of state and local figures, that polling found that public faith in Congress as a whole has collapsed to a negative 30 points.
The polling by the Crosby campaign has also found a high degree of voter unanimity on vital issues regardless of party affiliation. Both Democrats and Republicans surveyed cited concerns about affordability, accountability, the Great Salt Lake and access to public lands as among their core issues.
A first-time political candidate, Crosby is reportedly running a grass roots campaign that is not accepting donations from corporate political action committees or foreign interests.
“Peter Crosby is connecting with voters because he’s focused on where Utah is going, not where Washington has been,” King explains.
“He’s giving voters a chance to turn the page and elect a representative with a fresh perspective and a vision for the future of northern Utah,” the Democratic chair adds.