Of the 435 House seats that were up for grab on Election Day, only five are considered true toss-ups. Of that number, two of the seats are in California (the 22nd and 45th Districts), one seat is in Iowa (the 1st District), one is in New York (the 19th District) and the final seat is in Washington (the 3rd District).
We might be waiting a little bit until all of these races are called — in California, for instance, just over half of the expected vote share is in. But what we know so far seems to suggest Republican victories in three seats, and Democratic wins in the remaining two. If these trends hold true, that would amount to just one flipped seat in Democrats’ favor: in New York’s 19th District. While ABC News has yet to project a winner, the Associated Press called the race for Democrat Josh Riley late Tuesday evening. The stakes here are high: The New York Times reported that there was roughly $45 million spent on this contest alone. If Riley holds on, his win would represent the second flip for Democrats in The Empire State. On Tuesday evening, state Senator John Mannion, a Democrat, defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in the neighboring 22nd District.
In the remaining four toss-up races, it looks like the incumbent legislators will pull through — but only by a thread. In Iowa’s 1st District, for instance, Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Christina Bohannan, with a lead of less than 1,000 votes and 99% of the expected vote in. The second-closest race may be Washington’s 3rd District, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez currently leads her challenger, Joe Kent, by four percentage points.