Strong turnout by unaffiliated voters and a comparative abundance of moderates stand out in preliminary exit poll results from the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday.
Under New Hampshire law, the primary is open, allowing independents to vote for either the Democratic or Republican nominee.
Voters who are registered as “undeclared,” rather than Republican, account for 47% of the turnout in the preliminary exit poll results — the record to date was 45% in 2012.
Moderates account for 31% of voters, compared with 9% in last week’s Iowa caucuses. Just 24% are very conservative vs. 52% in Iowa. And white evangelicals are 19%, compared with 55% in Iowa.
A voter fills out their ballots on Jan. 23, 2024, in Loudon, New Hampshire.
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Using self-reported partisanship, 45% of New Hampshire voters in these preliminary exit poll results describe themselves as independents, near the 2012 record of 47%.
Notably, 8% identify themselves as Democrats — double the previous high in a GOP primary in the state.
That leaves just 47% of Republican primary voters identifying as Republicans in these preliminary exit poll results — which, if it holds, would set a new low. Self-identified Republicans have slipped to fewer than half of GOP primary voters in the state just once before: 49% in 2012.
A quarter of New Hampshire voters in these preliminary results say they finally made up their mind in the past week or less and 16 percent are first-time voters in a GOP primary.
A relatively modest majority of New Hampshire primary voters, 56%, say in these preliminary results that they’d be satisfied with former President Donald Trump as the party’s nominee but 55% say they’d be satisfied with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Trump’s main remaining opponent.
Voters cast their ballots on primary election day at a polling station in Littleton, New Hampshire, on Jan. 23, 2024.
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About 32% of New Hampshire voters identify themselves as part of the MAGA movement vs. 46 % in Iowa.
Forty-nine percent of voters say they are 2020 election deniers compared with 66% in Iowa. And 47% say that if Trump were convicted of a crime, they’d consider him unfit to serve as president — compared to the 31% of voters in Iowa who said the same. He denies all wrongdoing.
Another question marks Haley’s position as chiefly the anti-Trump choice: 77% of Trump voters in these preliminary results say they strongly favor their candidate as opposed to liking him with reservations or mainly disliking others. By contrast, just 33% of Haley voters strongly favor her and 39% mainly dislike her opponent
Voters fill out their ballots on Jan. 23, 2024, in Loudon, New Hampshire.
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From a list of four issues, the economy (34%) and immigration (31%) prevailed in importance, compared with foreign policy, cited by 17%, and abortion, 11%.
With regards to abortion, 27% of voters say they favor a federal ban, a sharp difference from 61% who favored it in Iowa, according to preliminary exit poll results.
Economic sentiment is sour, with 69% saying the economy is in not-so-good or poor shape. Relatedly, 77% are dissatisfied or even angry with the way things are going in the country today. And a majority of voters, 56%, say they expect life to be worse for the next generation of Americans — up dramatically from 20% in 2020 and 33% in 2016.
Exit poll results may change as the night progresses.