An inflation report to be released on Wednesday will provide an update on the issue raised by many Americans as their top economic concern, just days before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.
The fresh data arrives after a jobs report last week showed stronger-than-expected hiring in December, which sent the stock market plummeting and bond yields soaring on fears that the Federal Reserve may delay long-forecasted interest rate cuts.
Economists expect prices to have increased 2.9% in December compared to a year ago. That figure marks an uptick from year-over-year inflation of 2.7% in the month prior.
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022, but price increases remain above the Fed’s target rate of 2%.
The inflation rate has ticked up in recent months and, if economists’ predictions prove accurate, the pace of price increases will return to its highest level since July.
The Fed dialed back its fight against inflation over the final months of last year, lowering interest rates by a percentage point. Still, the Fed’s interest rate remains at a historically high level of between 4.25% and 4.5%.
An acceleration of inflation could give the Fed additional reason to delay interest rate cuts forecasted for later this year, since the bout of stubborn price hikes may raise concern that inflation would move even higher if interest rates were to be lowered.
The Fed has already indicated worry about the resurgence of escalating inflation over the latter part of 2024.
Last month, the Fed predicted fewer rate cuts in 2025 than it had previously indicated, suggesting concern that inflation may prove more difficult to bring under control than policymakers thought just a few months ago.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on December 18, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Alex Wong/Getty Images
Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank may proceed at a slower pace with future rate cuts, in part because it has now lowered interest rates a substantial amount.
Powell also said a recent resurgence of inflation influenced the Fed’s expectations, noting that some policymakers considered uncertainty tied to potential policy changes under Trump.
“It’s common-sense thinking that when the path is uncertain, you get a little slower,” Powell said. “It’s not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking around in a dark room full of furniture.”
Trump has proposed tariffs of between 60% and 100% on Chinese goods, and a tax of between 10% and 20% on every product imported from all U.S. trading partners.
Economists widely forecast that tariffs of this magnitude would increase prices paid by U.S. shoppers, since importers typically pass along a share of the cost of those higher taxes to consumers.