U.S. hiring has defied doomsayers for years. Stubborn inflation, high interest rates and a contentious presidential campaign have proven no match for a resilient labor market.
A fresh jobs report on Thursday will show whether that robust performance continued in November.
A weaker-than-expected reading may raise alarm and cause observers to revisit disappointing results in October, which many economists have attributed to one-off disruptions of data collection.
Policymakers and investors will get a key clue about the health of the economy as the nation hurtles toward end-of-the-year holidays and the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. The findings could also help determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates when officials meet later this month.
The labor market hit a rare speed bump in October as the economy added 12,000 jobs, its weakest performance since December 2020.
The data appeared to offer little more than a blurry snapshot due to data-gathering disruptions, however. A combination of hurricanes and work stoppages likely caused an undercount of hiring that month, experts told ABC News.
Economists expect the U.S. to have added 214,000 jobs in November, which would mark a significant increase from the previous month and a return to solid growth. The anticipated figure would come in slightly lower than where hiring stood in September, when the U.S. added 254,000 jobs.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speaks at the DealBook Summit in New York, Dec. 4, 2024.
Seth Wenig/AP
Despite an overall slowdown this year, the labor market has continued to grow. Hiring has persisted at a solid pace; meanwhile, the unemployment rate has climbed but remains near a 50-year low.
Overall, inflation has eased and the economy has expanded, giving rise to hope that the U.S. could achieve a soft landing.
U.S. GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate over three months ending in September, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data last month showed. That figure fell slightly below economists’ expectations, but demonstrated brisk growth that was propelled by resilient consumer spending.
Inflation has slowed dramatically from a peak of more than 9% in June 2022, but price increases remain slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2%.
The jobs report marks one of the last pieces of significant economic data before the Fed announces its next interest rate decision on Dec. 18.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.