FILE – Groundhog Club co-handler Al Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 134th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa. Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020. Despite his famed reputation, Census officials say the Punxsutawney Phil isn’t much of a weather forecaster. But the 136th observance of Groundhog Day is still slated for Feb. 2 in Punxsutawney, PA. (AP Photo/Barry Reeger)

PUNXSUTAWNEY, PA – Officials of the U.S. Census Bureau say that if Punxsutawney Phil were a human gambler, he’d barely break even.

Every Feb. 2, a crowd of thousands gather before dawn at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania – usually in freezing temperatures – to await a seasonal weather forecast from a groundhog named Phil.

According to legend, if Phil emerges from his den and sees his shadow, the United States can expect six more weeks of winter weather.

If Phil doesn’t see his shadow, however, Americans can expect warmer temperatures and an early spring.

Yeah, right.

Thanks to the Punxsutawney city fathers, good old Phil – and his ancestors – have been predicting the weather since 1887. But how often is he actually correct?

Just for the heck of it, analysts at the Census Bureau decided to check out Punxsutawney Phil’s track record for accuracy over the past 135 years.

According to those Census bean counters, Phil has gotten it right about 50 percent of the time.

Last year, for example, Phil saw his shadow and predicted a long winter.

The accuracy of that prediction looked pretty solid in the subsequent February. The average temperature in the contiguous United States during February 2021 was 30.6 degrees Fahrenheit. That was 3.2 degrees colder than the 20th Century average temperature for that month and marked the coldest February since 1989.

Nobody in the central U.S. welcomed Phil’s prediction last year. Cold air from Canada brought frigid temperatures, snow and ice from the Northern Plains region all the way down to southern Texas. Six states ranked it among their 10-coldest Februaries on record and it was the 11th-coldest February for Texas and Illinois.

But March of 2021 saw above average temperatures across most of the continental United States.

The average temperature was 45.5 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 4.0 degrees higher the 2Oth Century average for March. Temperatures were above average from the Northwest through the Great Lakes region into New England and down the East Coast to the Gulf of Mexico. March temperatures for North Dakota were ranked fourth warmest on record.

That means that the famous rodent scored 50/50 on his 2021 prediction and the Census folks say that’s about par for the course over his more than 100-year history of weather forecasting.

According to their records, the local organizers of the three-day Groundhog Day Festival in Punxsutawney say that Phil has predicted more winter 105 times and an early spring 20 times since 1887. Nobody seems to remember what Phil forecast on another 10 occasions.

But Census officials emphasize that Phil’s track record for the entire country certainly isn’t perfect. On average, they say, Phil has gotten it right about 50 percent of the time, particularly in the past 10 years.

Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country — especially one with such varied regional climates as the United States — isn’t easy, according to officials of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They cite Phil’s checkered track record as evidence of that.

In the years since 1887, when he made his debut as the official groundhog forecaster for the entire country, Phil has usually seen his shadow. Even his first prediction of six more weeks of winter was only accurate for a few regions, coming up short for several others.

While a few loyal Punxsutawney residents might dispute the Census study, most simply don’t care whether their famous groundhog can actually forecast the weather. The town’s tourist-attracting winter festival will continue, even if Phil can’t get his predictions right.



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